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アイルランドのいま
アイルランドはギリシアについでトロイカからベイルアウトを受けた国である。アイルランドの破綻の最大の原因はスペインと同じで不動産投機の破裂だ。いまでもこの問題は深刻な状況にある。そしてベイルアウトはほとんどが銀行の救済に支払われてきた。国民には超緊縮予算が要求されているというのもPIGSに共通する。
だが、アイルランド国民は「紳士」的である。あまり過激な抗議行動には出ていない(これはポルトガルとも通じる)。皮肉だが、アイルランド人は短気というのが定説である。get Irish (怒るという意味)という言葉が示すように[ついでにいうと、Scotchは「しみったれ、けち」という意味だ]。しかしいま政治的にも大きな問題になっていることがある。マイホーム保有者にたいし、一律に100ユーロの税金(一種の人頭税)を課すというものだが、まもなく支払い締め切りを迎えるというのに70%の人が支払っていない。支払わないと重い罰則的課金が課せられるというのに、である。政府は100億ユーロの調達が必要となっている。
この人頭税が失敗に終わると、大きな問題が発生する。政府の資金調達についての信頼がなくなるという問題(とくにトロイカから)と、もう1点、例の「財政合意」をめぐりアイルランドでは国民投票が実施されるという問題がある。ここで批准が否決されるという可能性が大きくなるからである。国民はアイルランド政府の人頭税を拒絶している(7割が支払っていない)。この状態で罰金的課税を行った場合、どうなるか。人々がそれに応じなかった場合(応じないだろう)、政府はどういう手に出るだろうか。手が打てない場合、政府は不信任案を出されたも同然である。しかもこれはトロイカによって要請されている超緊縮政策の一環であるから、それにノーと言っているのに等しい。そうなると、国民投票は「ノー」となる可能性が高い。それはメルケルの戦略にとって重大な「ノー」が突きつけられることに等しい。
***
Household charge rebellion clouds Irish outlook
Failure by a majority of homeowners to pay by this weekend would mark the first act of collective defiance against austerity
Opposition TDs protest against the €100 household charge in Dublin.
Even the giant leprechaun dressed in a heavy bottle-green coat and a woolly detachable head near a Dublin landmark seemed to be enjoying the sunshine. When he took off his head there wasn't a single sign of perspiration on his face. He appeared happy enough to take a breather and let his companion pass the collection hat around the knots of tourists using their iPhones and mobiles to take a snap beside the Molly Malone statue across the road from the walls of Trinity College.
When he put the ginger-bearded head back on, the leprechaun was asked whether the unseasonably warm weather was making his suit uncomfortable. Faithful to the leprechaun omerta, he gave a non-verbal response: a shake of the head to indicate he wasn't sweltering, and a thumbs-up presumably to show he was happy to see the crowds come out in the sun.
With throngs of shoppers darting in and out of stores on Grafton Street and drinkers slaking their thirsts outside the pubs on side streets all the way up to St Stephen's Green, you could be forgiven for wondering, momentarily at least: recession, what recession?
The government faces a test this week over the €100 (£83) flat-rate household charge that every homeowner must pay by the weekend. Failure to pay could result in heavy fines, but only about 30% have done so thus far. The government fears that failure to collect the revenue needed to pay for local government services (the Republic abolished UK-style rates in 1977) would send out a damaging signal that the Irish won't pay their way.
The household charge could be the greatest error of the Fine Gael-Labour coalition's first year in office, and has already been compared (with a more than touch of hyperbole) to Margaret Thatcher's poll tax. There will be no replication of the poll tax riots in Dublin, but if less than half the population signs up by the end of the week it will mark the first act of collective defiance against the austerity programme designed to drive down the national debt and restore international confidence in the economy.
Fine Gael and Labour are starting to realise they have a fight on their hands as they face accusations that they are more interested in penalising mortgage-holders than the bankers and speculators whose greed laid waste to the property market. On Monday the Fine Gael minister of state for finance, Brian Hayes, said that if the government didn't get the revenue from the household charge it would have to find the money from elsewhere, possibly by raising personal taxation.
"Pretending that there is some painless solution to this is utterly delusional," Hayes said. "If we don't want to see jobs being lost because of a taxation system that taxes the hell out of people for working, then the only way to resolve our problem is to look at new sources of taxation." He said the state still needed to borrow €10bn this year to pay for public jobs and services.
Opposition parties, most notably Sinn Féin and the United Left Alliance, are capitalising on the opposition to the charge, although the two blocs have taken different approaches. Sinn Féin TDs who are homeowners will refuse on principle to pay the €100 tax, but the party has stopped short of calling on the public not to pay either, because it says it would not be in a position to pay everyone's fines and legal bills. The ULA, comprising the Socialist party and People Before Profit TDs, has urged all those liable for the tax to refuse payment before the weekend deadline.
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